Author: lightingbyjeffrey

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Lighting Commentary

Housing Stats and Lighting Use

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The recently released “2025 State of the Nation’s Housing” report from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies is a daunting read. Try as I might, I could not find a silver lining in this cloudy collection of stats and data. As anyone involved in decorative residential lighting knows, there is a close correlation between home sales and lighting sales and like the relationship between Harvard University and Donald Trump, it looks rocky.

Let’s start with a few statistics that should make us all a bit uneasy.

  • The median price for a previously owned home has risen to $412,500.
  • The “Home Price to Income Ratio” has risen to 5.0:1, the highest it has been since the housing bubble of 2006.
  • Of the top 100 metro areas, only three had a “Price to Income Ratio” below 3.0.
  • The monthly mortgage payments on that median home have reached record highs of $2560. That is an incredible 40% higher than 1990 after adjustments for inflation.

This reality has resulted in even more harrowing information.

  • The lowest number of previously owned home sales since 1995 at 4.06 million.
  • A decline in home ownership to 65.6% of the population.
  • A record high median age for 1st time home buyers at 38 years old.
  • Add to this another stat. The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) also just published, indicates lower than expected home renovation and repair activity with just a 1.2% growth for 2026. (to the 2nd quarter)

As folks involved in supplying decorative accessories to homeowners, this does not bode well for us. New home ownership usually sparks spending on redecorating and remodeling. No new homes means no new lighting purchase.

We might be encouraged by the increase in rental market participation as an alternative, but according to the report, that too is a place of concern. Renters are experiencing an affordability crisis.

  • A record number of households are spending more than 30% of their income on rental housing at 22.6 million.
  • A record number of households are spending more than 50% of their income on rental housing at 12.1 million.
  • There are now record low amounts of remaining income after paying for housing of only $250/month for renters who earned less than $30,000/year.
  • There are record levels of homelessness, now at 771,480 humans.

Even the good news is tempered with red flags. 1.02 million new single family homes were completed in 2024, representing a 3% increase over the previous year. A 7% increase in starts was reported for 2024 as well. However, to deal with the rising price of a home, homes are now equipped with fewer or cheaper amenities. The average size at 2150 sq. ft. is the third decline in three years. The average price for a new home fell to $420,300, because builders were forced to offer incentives and mortgage rate “buy-downs.” Pointing to the reality, the reports suggested this was an untenable situation that could not legitimately continue. Inevitably, prices would need to rise, meaning fewer units would be sold. Add to this the tariff implications and the amount of new construction homes is sure to plummet.

Splashing cold water on the “it’s got to get better” argument, household formation was also included in the report. For the second year, there is deceleration. New homes are needed as new households are formed. A major driver of new households is immigration. With the near total elimination of immigration provided by the new presidential administration, a slowdown is on the horizon. Immigration is not, however, the only bellwether that should draw concern.

  • In 2026, Baby Boomers will reach the age of 80 and this massive driver of economic power will experience accelerated levels of mortality that will NOT be replaced with the next generation’s new household replacement levels.
  • As can be witnessed by the recently passed “Big Beautiful Bill” (I have a few other nom de plumes that could replace that moniker) federal housing assistance will not be maintained, further exacerbating the cost complications of housing.

What Can Lighting People Do?

I worked with a guy years ago who self-deprecatingly referred to himself as, “just an old light bulb salesman.” A few drinks into an evening and added adjectives were pasted onto his faux title. Like my former coworker, we just want to create, market, design, employ and sell lighting. How do we do this in this new environment? Here are a few thoughts. I’m sure you have a number of your own.

  • Cater to the Boomer generation and their much smaller sister, the “X” generation. Together they command about 75% of wealth in the United States today and they are viable consumers for at least ten, perhaps twenty years. Just realize, they are a diminishing entity.
  • Wealthy people are now in the driver’s seat. As we see from the afore mentioned federal funding legislation, we will be witnessing the greatest transfer of money from the middle-class and working poor to the wealthy and “well to do.” Cater to this consumer. This is a small, but mighty block of people, if you can figure out how to meet their needs, you can win.
  • Despite the setbacks, a lot of homes and apartments will be built, but they will likely be of lower cost, so that means a need for viable, low-cost lighting. What does that mean today? What will it mean tomorrow? I expect to see a total reassessment of what lighting is included in new construction, tract housing and multi-family housing, Forget what is used today and invent the low-cost requirements of tomorrow. If there is ever a time to toss away the box and consider what lies beyond, it is now.
  • Growth might be reduced. With that inevitability, how do you plan for that? A non-rising, bottom-line isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as long as you understand this reality,
  • Does the “middle class” disappear? Are we about to find ourselves in a world with super wealthy and everyone else? Based on the reality of politics today, this looks like the future. If that is, in fact the reality, companies and distributors might need to bisect their lines to accommodate the new norm.

This information and many others like it is available from many sectors. There is lots of information and some of it is conflicting. Read as much as you can and digest it well. I believe you will find that the home furnishings market is moments away from a paradigm shift. Are you ready? Is anyone ready?

Click to access Harvard_JCHS_The_State_of_the_Nations_Housing_2025.pdf

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Technical Lighting Help

Is Home Automation a “Time-Saver?”

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My wife and I have just moved into our new-old home. We have spent almost a year restoring and reinvigorating a mid-century ranch that will deliver a more carefree (and step-free) life for us as we age. Because of the rough state of the home when we purchased it, a rewire was required. Many walls were removed (black mold) the ceilings were taken out (water ingression from a leaky roof) and fuse boxes removed (Federal Pacific Electric Panel.) The lack of physical encumbrances made the lighting choices easier. I could spec almost everything I wanted and the wiring part would be easy. (Well, easier. Doing so within the confines of maintaining the mid-century characteristic of the home soon became the hindrance.)

I decided to install a Control 4 Home Automation system to “run” the house. Security, lighting, garage door, shading controls, temperature control and intercom could fall under one umbrella. The Bosch appliances, themselves supported by a proprietary app could be brought into the group. There are other functions that could be integrated as well. Luckily, I have been using a local tech-guru that helped me through this process. More often than not, when I asked if something could be done, his answer was, “Yes!” I cannot amply stress the importance of having a tech-champion on your team. This person is as important as a plumber or an electrician. (Please note, a tech person COULD be an electrician, but an electrician is not necessarily a technology expert! Get the right person for the needed job.)

I wanted the system because of my belief that, despite the conflicting realities, automation is probably more beneficial to seniors than the tech-savvy Millennials. My wife selected faucet handles that will work better for arthritic hands, the AIP contractor suggested a drawer microwave because it is more conducive to someone who might be wheelchair bound. Wet baths were included to eliminate the possibly hazardous step and aesthetically sensitive grab bars were included, just in case. Automation systems can be equally helpful for many of the other things that become a struggle as we age.

The back of the house features sixteen large windows that look out on a wooded area (in the middle of an inner-ring urban/suburban neighborhood.) Without automation, opening and closing them daily could be an onerous task. Insuring nightlights are turned on at night has shown to reduce falls in seniors. That is an easy thing for home automation systems. Nighttime security checks can quickly be achieved by a control system. All of these things should make life for us better as we age. All of these things should not be a burden.

I was reminded of the burden of automation after reading a New York Times opinion feature that shared the fact that automation is NOT saving us any time. Workers using AI to “help” are not saving time. Technology-enhanced homes are not allowing active young homeowners added time to lollygag and “chill.” Statistics state they spend roughly the same amount of time doing (loosely defined) housework as their parents. But why? The creators of these products promised me peeled grapes and a pink pony!

Each time my wife attempts to book a doctor’s appointment online, I am reminded why technology does not always save time. The two-step authentication becoming more and more ubiquitous was probably invented by lawyers in an effort to protect their litigious-prone industry. How many times has a slow server, or a weak Wi-Fi connection caused you to “time-out” of your ability to enter the six-digit code? My moderate dyslexia invariably forces me to reenter the number more than once. Does the cybercrime version of Boris & Natasha really care my annual physical is scheduled for next Thursday?

I’ve never figured automation to save me time. In pre-computer days, when I managed an Engineering Department, I had an assistant. If I needed communication to be sent to people in the company, outside the company, whomever, I asked her to write a note to them about whatever topic was required. Later that day, she had typed a letter covering the required topic. As fax machines came online, I was required to write letters with sketches and details she could not complete. When each of us was given a computer and an email address, all of the correspondence was now my responsibility. My assistant could no longer handle that portion of my workload. I was now the typist. Luckily for her, she was an immensely talented person and went on to manage her own collection of people in a different area of the company. Automation simply meant I now had more work. Different work, but more than I had prior.

I did not buy and have installed a Control 4 home automation system to save time and money. I did not expect to save energy. I did hope a home support network would allow my wife and me to live in our last home longer by eliminating some of the more cumbersome tasks from our daily routine. I still believe this to be true. I am also realistic (and old) enough to know that sometimes you get wasabi and sometimes you get horseradish with food coloring and cornstarch, more often, the latter.

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Technical Lighting Help

Why is Color Fidelity Better Than Color Rendering?

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In my last blog post, I explained the recent recommendation by the CIE (International Commission on Illumination) to move away from CRI and replace it with Rf, CIE General Color Fidelity Index. Almost immediately, I was asked why. It’s a good question. On the surface, they appear to be very similar.

  • Both use a zero to 100 ranking system
  • Both use the same Spectral Power Distribution (SPD)
  • Both compare a source against reference colors

This last point is what makes the biggest difference.

Color Rendering Index (CRI) uses only eight reference colors. All eight are pastels with similar levels of saturation. For years, known flaws included the lack of red, bold colors and flesh tones, but because incandescent light does a good job rendering pastels, it never raised much concern. The rise of LED laid bare the failures.

To solve this key flaw, Rf uses 99 reference colors, evenly spread across the color spectrum. These are also colors drawn from real-world objects and dyes. A wider sampling will deliver a more realistic metric.

One additional pushback I have heard concerns the similar results garnered by each test method. Perhaps the CRI is 90 and Rf is 92. Of course, that is possible. MicroSoft Windows 1.0 could allow us to write a letter and the same can be said about today’s most current operating system. The difference is in all of the other features. As we begin to use and understand Rf, the added features will grow in value. With the added data provided by Rf, one might find one light source does a great job rendering wood tones and another a better with bold blue colors. As lighting professionals, we can select the light that best suits the application. As the CIE address the other know flaws, new measurements will build on this foundation to be more robust method of color measurement.

I can’t stress this more. Find a way to introduce yourself to this new metric. Like commercial lighting professionals have realized before us, the advantages will far outweigh the learning curve.

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Technical Lighting Help

Goodbye CRI, Hello?

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You may have heard that the CIE (International Commission on Illumination) has finally agreed with numerous illumination and color of light experts to abandon the Color Rendering Index (CRI) method of measuring the quality of white light. That was the easy part (not really, it took a long time, but stick with me.)

While those of us who simply want to specify and use good light have referred to this characterization as CRI, the CIE calls it Ra, CIE General Color Rendering Index. They are recommending a replacement with Rf, CIE General Color Fidelity Index.

When we lived in an incandescent and fluorescent world, CRI worked fine. As we started to employ more fluorescent and then a total LED replacement, the known flaws in the CRI system became more and more apparent. Something different was needed. Early on, the CIE admitted that CRI was not acceptable, but was noncommittal on a replacement. This world organization is known for its detailed deliberation. When it makes a decision, it comes with a lot of weight.

Over the years, a number of replacement concepts were proposed and rejected until the lighting community was presented with TM-30. While there were a few objections, most everyone agreed this was a superior metric. Much of the commercial lighting industry has already begun using TM-30. We decorative lighting folks have maintained an allegiance to CRI for very clear reasons. It was easy. 100 = good; zero = bad. If we’re close to 100, we should be satisfied. Besides, we have just begun to take light quality seriously, some slack was needed to be given to those of use less technically inclined.

One reason TM-30 is so fully supported is because it is actually two different measurements packed into one metric. There is a one-for-one replacement for CRI or Ra. That is Rf (fidelity.) It also measures color saturation and that portion is call Rg (gamut.) The CIE also recognizes that a single fidelity measurement does not tell the whole story. They are setting a foundation for a more comprehensive metric that could be TM-30, or could be something else.

What Can Decorative Lighting Expect?

I understand change is hard. I was around when decorative manufacturers, retailers and the design community needed to digest a new set of data points. Color Temperature and CRI were rarely discussed and poorly understood prior. Nonetheless, we all rose to the occasion. Here’s what we should expect to see in the coming months and years.

TimingMetric 
The past and currentlyCRIWe may see many decorative manufacturers cling to the old measurement
Coming SoonCRI + RfTo help in the transition, showing both numbers will help users understand the number and the benefits of change
FutureRfWith the term an integral part of the dialog, CRI can then be eliminated
The Desired FutureRf + Rg (?) / TM-30 / ?Everyone understands we need a more comprehensive metric. Will TM-30 be the answer, or a stepping stone to something else?

I don’t know how long it will take for the decorative lighting world to see this change, but I do know, TM-30 was adopted a lot faster than I had expected in the commercial space. For that reason, I urge you to take a minute or two and understand what could be coming your way. Remember when you were the only one who understood CRI? That time is coming again.

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Aesthetic Lighting Help

Field Adjustable Lighting – Good or Bad?

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We have all heard the statistics about dimmers. An inordinately high percentage of dimmers are never changed. People set it to some level they desire and it never moves from that point for the rest of its usable life. I recently attended the 2025 Cleveland Electric Expo and listened to a lecture covering controls and learned that the same thing is happening with color controls. This expert indicated that 85% of their installations are set once and never moved again. Sort of defeats the idea of circadian-sensitive lighting, hum?

If you have listened to me speak or read my posts, you know I do not use many dimmers in my lighting designs. I’d much rather have multiple switches control specific areas of the room. With multiple switches, I get all the variation I could possible need or want. For example, I have five switches in my kitchen that control lighting (one controls a non-illuminated ceiling fan, so we won’t bring this into the conversation.) That provides me with 120 variations of light. (5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1) Do I need more than 120 options? Does anyone?

My reasons also go beyond simple options. When I spent a portion of my career thinking about landscape lighting, dimmable product was entering the market. I couldn’t think of anything less viable. The job of a landscape lighting designer is to place the correct amount of light in the right area and contrast that with the surrounding lighted and unlit elements in the space. The result is a delicate balance. Some trees are intentionally lit brighter. Some shrubs are simply touched with light. Yard art might demand more (or less) brightness. Pathways and steps are illuminated to provide safety to the user. This symmetry would be quickly defeated upon the introduction of a dimmer. Nonetheless, I see dimmers advertised for use in landscape lighting. Why? It’s a gadget marketing can use to grab the attention of the consumer.

I understand the need for field adjustability in commercial spaces. Commercial lighting is far more complex than the residential world I inhabit. Field adjustability is a crucial aspect, insuring each unique business and workspace gets the light needed and desired, while maximizing savings on energy. The adjustability might only be used upon initial set-up, or perhaps when a new occupant takes over a space or office. A leather boutique might have very different demands for light when compared with a jewelry store. Adjustability has its place.

I worry now about color adjustability. We are learning more daily about the demands our body has on light. We could begin regulating light color transitions that support our circadian needs (bright bluer mornings and afternoons and dim, warmer evenings.) Then the customer gets involved playing with the dials and before you know it, they are lighting the evenings with bright 6500K light and wondering why they can’t sleep. Sure, once we go away, the property is owned by the client, but do we forfeit responsibility? How do we prevent our clients from being their own worst enemy?

I remember talking to a landscape designer about customer interaction. He told me that he explains to the prospective customer that he will select ALL the accent lighting used on a job. The customer would choose the pathway luminaires. He then offered three options. I asked why he only gave them three. He told me that if he gave the customer more, or, god-forbid, the whole catalog, a decision would never be made. Seeing the catalog and reading the marketing descriptions, the client might also start asking about some of the accent lighting choices. By limiting their options, he gave the homeowner a choice of what he believed to be three excellent options. Any of the three would properly illuminate the pathways. It insured a better job than if the client were in the driver seat.

Field adjustability is not a dimmer. Some significant variants can now be programed and provided with lighting. Human health benefits are now possible with light programing. Do we really want to leave this in the hands of a layman?

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Lighting Commentary

Alternate Outlooks

Wendy Maruyama – Modesty Box 2006

I was reading an article the other day talking about the increase in woman who have taken up woodworking as an artistic outlet. After reading the first sentence, I stop for a moment and thought, “Wow, this is interesting. I wonder how that might manifest itself?” If I would have continued reading, I would have quickly learned that one of the artists created a 4’-0” wooden box stand perfectly sized for an 18-pack of tampons. Again, I stopped reading. This time I grabbed a pen and jotted in the blank space of the article, “Why is diversity a good thing?” It was immediately clear to me that there is not a single male woodworker I know, or have known that would have created a storage box for tampons. Had I just continued to read, the very capable writer went on to make that exact point. Not covered in the article was my final thought. “Perhaps I should just read the article and avoid the stop-think-start method of digesting information! I’m an old guy. That ship might have sailed.

Diversity, Equity and Inclusion are very much on the minds of everyone today as political leaders work to destroy the voice of all in favor of the supremacy of one. I’m not sure I understand why this is considered a favorable action. I’ve never heard a cogent argument for exclusion. If all voices are uniform, then why do you need more than one “yes man?” Who believes inequity should be a defining goal of a business, let alone a government and its people? This is just one example where there is a benefit to a different voice.

During most of my career in residential lighting, we knew our primary customer is a female between the ages of 35 and 50. That is a narrow palette and it has since widened, but while men are now more involved in home décor, most residential design decisions are still made by women. Nonetheless, more men are employed in the lighting business. That too is changing. I see multiple notices in LikedIn featuring the promotion of a woman taking on a new role. Perhaps they’ll do a great job. Maybe they’ll fail, but it won’t be genital based, it will be skill-based. In the past there was this mythical “old boys network.” We now see the ALA has a “Women in Lighting” subgroup that appears to be growing each year. This can only be a good thing.

I remember, in the early days of LED I was asked to give a talk to a Houston area NKBA meeting. By that time, I was pretty good at explaining this more complicated technology to people who only understood the simplicity of incandescent. After the talk, one of the attendees of the all-female audience stopped me. I’ve never forgotten what she said. (Some paraphrasing may be included after so many years!)

“I did not want to come to this meeting, but I knew I had to. I knew this LED technology was going to change a large portion of what I do for a living and if I was going to be a successful guide for my clients, I had to understand it. My apprehension was that some pencil-neck engineer was going to either speak down to me, or speak over my head. When I saw you with that bowtie and cool shoes, I figured it would be OK and I was right. You told me exactly what I needed to be successful. Thanks!”

Imagine if the speaker at this afternoon lunch was a female engineer. Would more female designers have attended? Would the design community have adopted LED faster? Would the LED stigma have disappeared quicker?

Sometimes the messenger is as important as the message. We can’t immediately assume acceptability, hence the importance of opening our arm to everyone. We need everyone because we never know from where the next great idea will emerge. By including a wide expanse of people, we have the best possible shot at overall and total excellence. Just because our political leaders want to narrow the future does not mean the lighting community must follow.

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Uncategorized

Health and Lighting…Again

I continue to be fascinated by the connection of lighting and health. I remember attending a lecture on the topic about twenty years ago at LightFair and it opened up a wide avenue of thought. If you read these blog postings regularly, you know that the topic is a reoccurring feature. This one came to me totally out of the blue. Neither my wife, nor I contracted COVID. We remained stubbornly healthy, despite people all around us succumbing to the virus. For that reason, I haven’t really thought about it much. Nonetheless, for the handful of people who have “Long COVID” it does appear to be quite devastating. I can’t imagine the worst flu you’ve ever had hanging on for months. It seems unbearable.

When I read the medical study, “The possibility of circadian rhythm disruption in long COVID” I was intrigued, but not necessarily surprised. Since my first exposure to the power of the circadian cycle and all of the subsequent research, we are learning more and more about the healthy power of light. As research enlarges, we might just find out that the move from an agrarian society to a manufacturing economy, now to a service economy is having a substantial impact on our bodies. Because we are not outside enough and because the artificial light we use does not contain a full enough spectrum of light, our bodies are revolting in interesting and amazing ways.

Solutions are coming to the rescue and they do not involve each one of us becoming farmers again. (Thanks for that; my green thumb is actually gangrene.) At the recently concluded MWC Barcelona tech fair, a Dutch tech start-up introduced SunBooster, a computer mounted devise intent on delivering Near Infrared light (NIR.) (You may have read my very recent blog post on this topic https://lightingbyjeffrey.com/2025/03/17/light-and-health-and-infrared-light/  While working at your indoor job typically at the computer, the devise passively delivers the needed NIR light at a targeted wavelength of 850nm. Help, you didn’t even know you needed, delivered in a way you won’t notice.

Like the GUV equipment introduced mid-pandemic, expect more IR tools to appear as we unearth more knowledge about its impact. As I have mentioned many times prior, the facts may arrive slowly as scientists work carefully to determine the best way to solve the problem. As lighting professionals, we should keep our eye on the pulse of new developments, in service of the end consumer.

Want to read the entire paper on long COVID:

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9153185

An article covering the release of SunBooster:

Clip-on SunBooster uses near-infrared LEDs to bring benefits of sunlight indoors
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Technical Lighting Help

Data Driven Lighting Selection

A friend of mine is doing a substantial amount of research of interurban transportation of the early 1900s. To aid in his efforts, he has acquired many years of the trade publication, Electric Railway Journal. In the midst of culling this vast haystack of data to find the “needle” he needs, he stumbled across an article covering the testing that was done by General Electric Company’s National Lamp Quality Division for the illumination of railcars. To insure there was adequate lighting at the fare box, aisles and for general passenger comfort, they took readings at multiple locations in the car. To satisfy the manufacturer, they recorded various voltage draws and power consumption. Being mindful of costs, they also compared operating expenses for three lamp options. Basically, this was an extremely thorough examination of the available lamping of the time.

As I read this report, I realized that presenting the information in a trade publication was a very fortunate thing. When selecting a product now, we can always Google, “Top 10 Best [fill-in the blank]” and read a handful of lists and reviews before buying. That would not have been the case in the 1910s. There was probably a low likelihood that a local train car lighting expert was in your neighborhood. Finding expertise was a bigger challenge then, hence the need for trade publications.

Today, there are a lot of lighting options. Almost too many. The introduction of LED has opened the floodgates of choice and we could easily drown from it. I have heard some people toss up their hands and almost give up. “Forget it, just install some pancake recessed!” Ain’t nobody wants to hear that!

What parameters should we use to select lighting? Here’s four key topics that might help make the choice easier. Style, size, lumen output and placement.

Style

Decorative lighting is an integral part of our home’s interior. When using a decorative luminaire, style becomes a very important part of the puzzle. Choose a design that melds with the room, the space and the context. Luminaires are often hanging right in the middle of a living space. They are a dominant aesthetic element. Selecting a style that does not work with the furniture, floor coverings, window dressings and wall decorations will be a huge mistake.

Size

Decorative luminaires should be sized commensurate with the application. I’ve written a few blog posts on this point in the past so I won’t repeat myself, but size relative to place is key. Too small makes the light insignificant, too large allows it to dominate a room. Care should be taken when choosing the size of a luminaire.

Lumen Output

Again, I have included the charts for expected lumen demand in various places multiple times in prior posts, for good reason. You need a specific quantity of light in specific use applications. Follow the recommendations and you will enjoy successful lighting.

Placement

Will you put a light over the mirror in a bathroom and blind the user, or will you use the more visually comforting lights flanking the mirror? Will you use surface mounted pancake LED faux recessed, or the correctly deigned recessed luminaires? Will you diffuse lamping, or will you use bare bulbs? Placing lighting in a location that will serve the room and the user will be the most well received addition to a home.

Sure, the needs of 1910s interurban rail riders seems like it has no bearing on our life a century ahead, but these early users were taking care to employ the right light for the task with the technology available at the time. 100+ years in the further, we should be doing the same.

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Lighting Commentary

SNAP! Here’s Another Factory!

My wife and I enjoy traveling and have our entire life together. Our United frequent flyer numbers were actually generated by Eastern Airlines (which became Continental, which became United) we have (permanently) unused reward miles with TWA and PanAm. In 2018, I became a United 1 Million-Miler. I did not however, get that status from leisure travel (despite our herculean efforts!) Million Mile status came because I spent twelve years traveling back and forth to China as manufacturing of luminaires transitioned from the United States to Asia.

I was reminded of this as I listened to the “manufacturing return to America” pipe-dream espoused by our President. Tariffs will be raised, manufacturers will shutter Asian facilities, reopen US buildings, start making goods here. No more tariffs. “Easy-peasy!”

Oh, if it were as simple as this President believes. Transitioning to a new factory in a new country is HARD work. It can and has broken many companies. Simply moving a factory across town has crippled some organizations. It takes years and the efforts of countless people to make a move successful.

Before I ever set foot in Korea (my first factory visit in Asia) I was preceded by my boss, who did the initial legwork over a five-year period. While he was on the ground, I was writing directions and drawing illustrations via a fax machine to insure product outcomes were clear. Samples were shipped back and forth with detailed information on how to correct the problem and what end result we wanted. When I started to travel instead of him, I arrived with three legal pads of paper and multiple pen cartridges, leaving all of the filled paper with the factories, each sheet containing sketches, suggestions, options and instruction that needed to be done to make the product correctly. After a twelve hour day in the factory, I spent a few hours in my hotel room or lobby bar writing reports, then an hour in the “Business Center” faxing that information back to the office. (Note: fax machines were slow! Especially US to Asia!) If anyone ever asked me if I “enjoyed” my trip to China, I responded with a less than charitable answer. 24 concurrent 18-hour days does not equal “fun.” If it weren’t for the magnificent people I met and the few “days-off” I was afforded, I might not remember this time as fondly as I do now. It was a tough but rewarding part of my life’s work.

…and I wasn’t alone!

Purchasing people would make shorter trips, managers for different lines arrived for conversations, designers, planning the next release and logistics people all worked on their particular aspect of insuring good product arrived for the consumer. Perhaps even more challenged than engineering was the QA function. They were probably in the factory as long, or longer than me.

Multiply that by every other lighting company in the US and Canada. (Plenty of Europeans and Australians, too!) There was a buzzing hive of lighting people all helping a collection of 100, perhaps more factories make quality goods for the world market.

Today, a lot of that is reduced. The roads are better, so travel is easier. The hotels are more accommodating to western preferences. There are more people who speak English and more Americans who mumble through Mandarin. Some of this is being repeated right now in India, where the skills are not yet as well formed, but at least communications are easier.

A Quick Return to America?

When I read about a return to American manufacturing, I typically chuckle. Not because of the improbability, but because of the hubris. It took the blood, sweat and tears of thousands of Americans, Taiwanese, Chinese, Filipinos and Koreans over a dozen years to get manufacturing set up in Asia. Returning it to the US will be accomplished in a few months? I have more optimism that my wife and I can return to Portugal using our TWA frequent flyer miles.

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Aesthetic Lighting Help

The Manosphere and Lighting Trends

In an editorial overview of the latest New York Fashion Week, New York Times Fashion Editor, Vanessa Freidman wondered, “What it means to dress like a woman in the era of the manopshere…? When macho posturing is on the rise, do you lean into ruffles and lace and corsets and hobble skirts?” (New York Times February 16, 2025) Our new political reality has already caused economic rumblings, if not instability. The tariff-happy president insures we will be paying more for a host of goods and virtually every economics professional has predicted instability and higher inflation. In an era when reliable trading partners have become enemies, the first financial statistics of the new administration are backing this up. It appears we will be entering a period of time circumscribed by a difficult economy.

The connection to fashion and economics goes deeper. We have always heard that women’s hemlines rise during prosperous economic times and fall when the economy declines. I’ve always found, in lighting and most home goods, economically fruitful times means a somewhat stagnant period of design. Manufacturers are so busy meeting production demand that new ideas and new design trends fall to the back burner. When the economy begins to slip, new ideas are proposed to initiate added interest and fuel demand where it might otherwise flounder. I believe we will be entering a time like this shortly.

If you think about lighting design lately, we are in an aesthetic rut. How many more spindly chandeliers with a bare bulb can we digest? These, of course were created when lighting duty was increased (by the same President) in 2017 and 2018. Builders and consumers refused to pay more for a luminaire, so the result was product with a smaller physical size. The elimination of a diffuser made packaging easier and less costly as well. Add to that a declining economy and this reemergence of white male dominance and the landscape is ripe for a new shift.

Where do we go from here? For the cost-conscious tract-builder, the elimination of decorative lighting seems almost certain. There is virtually nothing left to remove from a chandelier now and it will be 20% more expensive. Unfortunately, that will likely mean more surface mounted faux-recessed lighting. In smaller homes, the dining room is probably on the block as well, so even an “inexpensive” chandelier will not be an issue. Spec and custom homes are likely to continue to use decorative pieces. I just wonder how many and at what price point.

Numbers and demand aside, here are a few things I expect to see in the next year or two. (2025-2026)

  • Natural Brass/Warm Gold will remain dominant. As I’ve indicated before, once natural colors alight at the top of lighting trends, they stay for an inordinate length of time. Polished Brass lasted 40 years the last time it was popular. We are at the beginning of a long run for brass/brasses/golds.
  • Brushed Nickel seems ripe for disappearance, but I still see it being used in more traditional settings. Brushed Nickel is surprisingly not going away without a fight, even after a quarter century of popularity. Nonetheless, it is now the oldest finish, by many measures and its influence continues to shrink beyond builder product and big-box retailers.
  • Hard Contemporary continues to slip in importance, in favor of its more amiable sister, Soft Contemporary. Softer lines that fit more comfortably with casual living environments will be the most in demand. This is a category that almost disappeared after its heyday in the end of the 1990s-beginning of the 2000s. Trends are cyclical.
  • I had expected to see a rise in more overtly traditional products. We had touches of maximalism and nouveau Victorian, but neither appears to have connected with wide swaths of consumers. Will the rise of he-men and a call for “beautiful” public buildings change this? I don’t think so. Some softer, or transitional styles will remain, but we are headed into a very casual style period. We see this in fashion and food and an almost complete lack of fine china, crystal and flatware sales. It should not be a surprise. If we need more supporting data, we are in the middle of a generational shift of home buyers. Gen Xers are buying the most expensive houses and Millennials are buying the largest quantity of homes. Theirs is a much more laid back lifestyle and their homes will reflect that.
  • Bare bulbs and clear diffusers are likely to be replaced with more white, etched, smoked or colored finishes. If we see clear, it will be supplemented with textures, surface treatments and obfuscation of some sort, in an effort to diminish the glare. Glare, which has always been bad will be discovered as such by the greater population (again!)
  • Pendants, of all sizes (small to jumbo large & shallow to tall) in any styles will be very popular. We might even be inclined to blur the line between chandeliers and pendants and linear chandelier/pendants. These will be the decorative showpiece items in a home, whether placed over a dining room table, nook dinette or kitchen island. Sure, chandeliers will remain, but I expect pendants to meet the cost and size demands of the home for the next few years. They are an easy way to fit within a builder’s budget.
  • Lighted mirrors will continue to replace conventional bath and vanity luminaires, especially in powder room applications.

This will be a new era. A desire to return the US to the 1950s when white men were supreme, but it wasn’t too hot for everyone else. Male dominance will be at the forefront of society. The general population and the economy will suffer as a new experiment in economics is tried. Consumers will again take their well-worn backseat as this fad plays out. Like has happened before, new ideas and change will keep the economy rumbling in the interim.