In an editorial overview of the latest New York Fashion Week, New York Times Fashion Editor, Vanessa Freidman wondered, “What it means to dress like a woman in the era of the manopshere…? When macho posturing is on the rise, do you lean into ruffles and lace and corsets and hobble skirts?” (New York Times February 16, 2025) Our new political reality has already caused economic rumblings, if not instability. The tariff-happy president insures we will be paying more for a host of goods and virtually every economics professional has predicted instability and higher inflation. In an era when reliable trading partners have become enemies, the first financial statistics of the new administration are backing this up. It appears we will be entering a period of time circumscribed by a difficult economy.
The connection to fashion and economics goes deeper. We have always heard that women’s hemlines rise during prosperous economic times and fall when the economy declines. I’ve always found, in lighting and most home goods, economically fruitful times means a somewhat stagnant period of design. Manufacturers are so busy meeting production demand that new ideas and new design trends fall to the back burner. When the economy begins to slip, new ideas are proposed to initiate added interest and fuel demand where it might otherwise flounder. I believe we will be entering a time like this shortly.
If you think about lighting design lately, we are in an aesthetic rut. How many more spindly chandeliers with a bare bulb can we digest? These, of course were created when lighting duty was increased (by the same President) in 2017 and 2018. Builders and consumers refused to pay more for a luminaire, so the result was product with a smaller physical size. The elimination of a diffuser made packaging easier and less costly as well. Add to that a declining economy and this reemergence of white male dominance and the landscape is ripe for a new shift.
Where do we go from here? For the cost-conscious tract-builder, the elimination of decorative lighting seems almost certain. There is virtually nothing left to remove from a chandelier now and it will be 20% more expensive. Unfortunately, that will likely mean more surface mounted faux-recessed lighting. In smaller homes, the dining room is probably on the block as well, so even an “inexpensive” chandelier will not be an issue. Spec and custom homes are likely to continue to use decorative pieces. I just wonder how many and at what price point.
Numbers and demand aside, here are a few things I expect to see in the next year or two. (2025-2026)
- Natural Brass/Warm Gold will remain dominant. As I’ve indicated before, once natural colors alight at the top of lighting trends, they stay for an inordinate length of time. Polished Brass lasted 40 years the last time it was popular. We are at the beginning of a long run for brass/brasses/golds.
- Brushed Nickel seems ripe for disappearance, but I still see it being used in more traditional settings. Brushed Nickel is surprisingly not going away without a fight, even after a quarter century of popularity. Nonetheless, it is now the oldest finish, by many measures and its influence continues to shrink beyond builder product and big-box retailers.
- Hard Contemporary continues to slip in importance, in favor of its more amiable sister, Soft Contemporary. Softer lines that fit more comfortably with casual living environments will be the most in demand. This is a category that almost disappeared after its heyday in the end of the 1990s-beginning of the 2000s. Trends are cyclical.
- I had expected to see a rise in more overtly traditional products. We had touches of maximalism and nouveau Victorian, but neither appears to have connected with wide swaths of consumers. Will the rise of he-men and a call for “beautiful” public buildings change this? I don’t think so. Some softer, or transitional styles will remain, but we are headed into a very casual style period. We see this in fashion and food and an almost complete lack of fine china, crystal and flatware sales. It should not be a surprise. If we need more supporting data, we are in the middle of a generational shift of home buyers. Gen Xers are buying the most expensive houses and Millennials are buying the largest quantity of homes. Theirs is a much more laid back lifestyle and their homes will reflect that.
- Bare bulbs and clear diffusers are likely to be replaced with more white, etched, smoked or colored finishes. If we see clear, it will be supplemented with textures, surface treatments and obfuscation of some sort, in an effort to diminish the glare. Glare, which has always been bad will be discovered as such by the greater population (again!)
- Pendants, of all sizes (small to jumbo large & shallow to tall) in any styles will be very popular. We might even be inclined to blur the line between chandeliers and pendants and linear chandelier/pendants. These will be the decorative showpiece items in a home, whether placed over a dining room table, nook dinette or kitchen island. Sure, chandeliers will remain, but I expect pendants to meet the cost and size demands of the home for the next few years. They are an easy way to fit within a builder’s budget.
- Lighted mirrors will continue to replace conventional bath and vanity luminaires, especially in powder room applications.
This will be a new era. A desire to return the US to the 1950s when white men were supreme, but it wasn’t too hot for everyone else. Male dominance will be at the forefront of society. The general population and the economy will suffer as a new experiment in economics is tried. Consumers will again take their well-worn backseat as this fad plays out. Like has happened before, new ideas and change will keep the economy rumbling in the interim.
Lighting by Jeffrey 