LED efficacy – Lighting by Jeffrey

What if We Don’t Care About Keeping LEDs Cool?

Sleeveless Garment – China – 1880s

The Cleveland Museum of Art holds, what most experts believe to be one of the best collections of Asian Art in the world. The post WWII Curator-Director, Sherman E. Lee made important connections throughout the continent while serving there in the military during and after the war. Those connections proved invaluable as the museum ramped up the department. Special Exhibitions of the collection are well attended and always of interest. In the latest, “China’s Southern Paradise: Treasures from the Lower Yangzi Delta,” I saw something I had never seen before.

The lower Yangzi was a crucial center for the trades, craftsmanship and production for centuries. It was close to water, fertile land and necessary raw materials. Unfortunately, working in this era was still difficult and the climate is often humid. To keep the laborer cool, a bamboo “sleeveless garment” was created. That piece, in remarkably good shape was included in the exhibition. Small 1/16” diameter by 1” long segments of bamboo reeds were strung together in a diamond pattern. The undershirt created a layer of air between the skin and fabric, thereby helping to keep the worker cool. I was amazed by this utilitarian object, far more than the decorative ceramic vases, jade carvings and fine scroll paintings.

Keeping cool has always been the goal of LEDs. Like the creation of an elaborate woven undershirt, a fair amount of time (and money) has been spent insuring that the LED is operating at peak performance in lamps and luminaires. But what if we didn’t care? What if we allowed LEDs to “run hot?” What would happen?

The short answer is what we are now seeing in many LED replacement lamps, premature death. In an effort to cut costs, long hours of life have been sacrificed. Rather than the 40,000 to 50,000 hours of expected life, most commonly available light bulbs are now promising 15,000 to 20,000 hours. There is a belief that consumers are “OK” with lower levels of performance. Decisions have been made based on this assumption. To establish lower replacement lamp costs, forgo the “costly” heat protection components and shorten life expectancies.

I worry about what’s next. As we become accustomed to LED light in our homes, will we see lower lumen output next, like the shift from 120V to 130V on budget incandescent lamps a few decades ago? Will lower levels of color rendering be tried? Sure people with higher levels of color sensitivity will see the differences, but almost 85% of the population won’t. That might be worth the gamble.

I believe this is setting the stage for the creation of a “GE Revel-type” LED lamp. If you’re not an old codger like me, in a world of 25¢ light bulbs, GE determined that some people (15% of the population?) would spend more money (four to eight times more!) for better quality light bulbs. I have no way of knowing, but this had to be a profitable decision. Revel lamps were still available last year before the exit of incandescent.

I look forward to longer life, better lumen output and higher, more consistent levels of color across the spectrum in my light. I’d be a customer. For those features, I’ll gladly pay more. Now, swapping out my Banana Republic tees for a bamboo version…maybe not so much!

No More Moore’s

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Gordon E. Moore, a giant behind the silicone computer chip, but perhaps better known for his conceptual predictions of growth trends known as “Moore’s Law” died last week. If you’re unfamiliar, he observed that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit double every two years. As this overarching observation turned into reality, he further added two corollaries. Evolving technology would make computers more and more expensive to build, but consumers would pay less and less for them because so many would be sold.

The rise of LED followed a very similar path of better and better output and lower and lower costs.

In his New York Time obituary, they indicated that the end of viability for Moore’s Law was imminent. Recently, similar predictions have been made about LED. With efficacy in the 200 lumens per watt range, only incremental improvements have occurred lately. The plateau we all expected is here. The LED version of Moore’s Law has come to a close.

Both silicone chips and LED diodes are the result of creative engineers pushing the edges of their respective specialties. No doubt, gathering momentum and strength from the successes of the other.

I have recently listened to two extended interviews with music producer, Rick Rubin. He is promoting his recent book, The Creative Act: A Way of Being, about the creative process. He is a fascinating voice and yet another book has been added to my growing list. If you don’t know Rubin’s work, listen to the Johnny Cash “American Recordings” They are quintessential examples of a career coda. A summation of a hard scrabbled life by an outlaw musician coming to terms with his mortality and his faith. The reason Cash was able to create these masterpieces was Rubin.

In his book, Rubin postulates that creative people build their work on the shoulders of other creative work. He rejects the idea that creatives should ignore other creatives. Seeing other good work does not mean it will be mimicked or reproduced into yours. Instead, creativity inspires creativity and the unique skill of one only heightens the output of another.

With that in mind, I like to imagine that the creative minds that transformed the lighting industry were looking across the imaginary Silicon Valley and upon seeing their success, were motivated to work harder and better resulting in the lighting we know, today. Creativity begat creativity. Thanks Mr. Moore for better lighting.