Peak China

I spent a considerable amount of time in China between 1995 and 2006. During that time I enjoyed friendships with a fairly large group of Chinese citizens, one gentleman in particular. During the Cultural Revolution his parents, both “Country Doctors” (his term) were victimized as intellectuals and he was subjected to levels of degradation that would belie his genial nature. (His story was not unique. Almost everyone of the same age had similar stories about that time period.)

After a day of LONG hours working to insure the product that reached the United States was in excellent shape, we talked about many things over dinner, personal, political and professional. These conversations were among the most rewarding in my life. I remember him telling me of the importance of Deng Xioping, former Chairman of the People’s Republic of China. Through his policies, Deng finally allowed my friend’s education to be of value and found to be unapologetically well-respected. His parents had suffered; he had suffered, but it would be a greater day for his son. Virtually every Chinese person I had the joy of knowing, expressed the optimism of the New Year greeting, “gong xi fa cai” or “great happiness and prosperity for the future.” A better life is around the corner.

It is an opinion now share by scores of people, that the current Chairman of China, Xi Jinping has effectively ended that optimism. I haven’t been to China in eighteen years, but the hope I encountered must be depleting. “Peak China” is over and Xi, like his communist partner Vladimir Putin of Russia, is attempting to reestablish an idyllic version of his country in a world that has experienced substantive change. In the process, he has alienated the bulk of the world and disenfranchised his own population.

The majority of lighting products and lighting components are made in China. Unfathomable just a decade ago, India is growing in importance to the lighting industry, almost exclusively at the expense of China. The importance of China to the lighting industry is shrinking each week. I suspect people in many other industry are saying something similar. That is going to have an impact on every Chinese citizen, including my old group of friends.

This is unfortunate. The move to Chinese manufacturing elevated lighting to new aesthetic, technological and mechanical heights. Advances were quickly made possible and fashion trends could be rapidly answered. Hundreds of talented young people were brought into companies across the country to learn from older industry experts and lend their skills in the English language to a parade of American, Australian and European customers. No doubt, much of that experience will now be employed servicing the growing domestic market, but “Peak China” has passed. Gone are the double-digit growth percentages and an era of mutual benefit. For their sake, I hope the new domestic market can support this mass of talent. I fear it cannot.

I’m glad I had an opportunity to learn from my involvement in this transformative era and hopefully, I left something in China with which they were able to grow their knowledge and businesses. It is unfortunate when politics and narrow minds ruin a good thing.